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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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THE THREE CONTEMPORARY PATTERNS OF BIRTH AND DEATH
A brief review of the available data follows. It will be under the three population types mentioned earlier.
High Birth and High Death Rates
Most of the populations in this category are in tropical Africa. An example (off the mainland of Africa, but for which recent data are available) is Madagascar, with 6,163,000 inhabitants in 1966. Its crude birth rate as registered was 45.75 per 1,000 population, and its crude death rate 25.31; therefore, its current rate of increase is about 2 percent per year. A life table for Madagascar for 1966 shows the expectation at age zero to be 37.6 years for males and 38.5 for females. The probability that a boy just born will live to age 50 is 0.386, and a girl 0.401. These numbers may be compared with those of Europe at the beginning of the 19th century. For Europe of that time, as for Africa now, full information was lacking, but some areas did have good statistics. Calculations for Sweden in the 5 years around 1800 show expectations of life of 36 and 38.9 years for males and females respectively, and 0.417 and 0.456 as the probabilities of living to age 50. Madagascar retains the mortality pattern of Europe about 1800, according to published figures; if its deaths are underregistered, then its death rate is even higher than that of early 19th century Europe.
Similar death rates are found in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and Togo, for all of which less recent official figures are available. Probably these high rates also apply to much of the rest of tropical Africa, for which no figures at all are to be had. Such high death rates appear to be on their way out and are found today among a minority of the world's population.
In respect to birth rates tropical Africa does not resemble Europe of 1800. The crude birth rate of Madagascar in 1966, reported as 45.75 per 1,000, is half as high again as Sweden's in 1800 of 31.21. The difference is important for the rate of increase; Sweden's increase was about 5 per 1,000 inhabitants per year, while that of Madagascar was 20 per 1,000.
No one knows how many of the world's population are in the condition of birth and death typified by Madagascar; perhaps it is half a billion.
High Birth and Low Death Rates
This category includes most of the present developing world. Again up-to-date official information is lacking, though it is not as scarce as for the high death rate countries. Honduras is typical of countries with the most rapid increase, with a birth rate in 1966 of 44.2 per 1,000 population, and a death rate of 8.67. Its expectation of life is 59.2 years for males and 60.7 for  oo-f ;,>-,<> too   r\f Kit-tin    fjfao   tr\  lio. Because some women die after the age of 20 and before 40, the reduction of the birth rate at the younger age will have more consequence for the rate of natural increase. For a population that is rapidly increasing, however, this is lessh to prove troublesome. control. Dr. Hilton Salhanick has observed that some women practicing the rhythm method will break or lose their thermometers at the critical juncture in theirright, therefore alwayshas some c